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The Probability of Mormonism As Divine, by R Keith Widdowson
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The use of probability theory is now recognized as an important scientific method for studying subjective evidence. Religion is subjective, hence, difficult to study. The author has provided a way, that has not been done before, to study the Mormon religion. He uses Bayes' probability theorem to determine the divinity of Mormonism. The theorem is applied to Mormon evidence and evidence critical of it to determine the likelihood or probability of divinity. This goal is achieved by: (1)Identifying advances in science affecting Mormon ideology. (2) Explaining why many Mormons espouse metaphysical certainty. (3) Discovering the sociological, psychological and theological underpinnings of Mormonism. (4) Using modern evidentiary methods to determine likelihood. (5) Establishing religious positions from which to view Mormonism. (6) Gathering and quantifying the evidence. (7) Presenting the findings and inferences. (8) Identifying a reasonable Mormon position to take. (9) Critiquing Mormonism based on the evidence. The book achieves these objectives. At the April, 2003 General Conference, Prophet Gordon B. Hinkley said "each of us has to face the matter -- either the church is true or it is a fraud. There is no middle ground. It is the church and kingdom of God or it is nothing." The prophet seems wrong about this. This study alleges there is a middle ground. The evidence did not prove the church to be factually true or factually false. It proved that the church may be true at a moderately low level of likelihood. This finding would support the religious position, "believer based on faith."
- Sales Rank: #3169631 in Books
- Published on: 2014-12-10
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .69" w x 6.00" l, .90 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 304 pages
From the Author
It is common for philosphers to describe man as the "explaining animal." Evidence from before written recorded history strongly suggest that we have attributed to supernatural forces that which we could not comprehend by other means.. Religion has been at the center of these efforts for every culture we have studied. Phenomenological verification has emerged later in our development of science to help us understand what our senses do not immediately reveal to us. A natural and dynamic tension has grown between the two approaches,Dr, Widdowson has produced a study of one of the world's most recent and fastest growing religions - Mormonism or The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. As Widdowson points out, scholars have examined the foundations of the Mormon church since its beginning in the 1830s. These foundations are based upon the revelations and prophesies of Joseph Smith.This methodology Widdowson uses is a particular approach to probability based on Thomas Bayes (1701-1761) theorem. Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule) has become important in the mathematical manipulation of conditional probabilities.This is not the first time that Bayes theorem concerning probability has been applied to religious questions. Stephen Unwin, a theoretical physicist with a PhD from the University of Manchester applied this methodology in his book "The probability of God" in 2003.Widdowson's takeoff point is the Mormon assertion (belief) that theirs is the "true church" - that a member"knows" the divinity of the church. Hence, and examination of truth or fact is relevant. He contrasts religion as a metaphysical connection with God based on revelation, inspiration, and historical methodology with science which studies organized religion attempting validation based upon evidence. He describes five positions from which to view God. These are Knower, believer, skeptical inquirer, agnostic, and atheist. The knower is convinced that the evidence has reach the level of established fact; whereas the believer views the evidence as not factual, but sufficient to make the "leap pf faith". Skeptical inquiry is essential in all fields of scientific examination.He clarifies the assumptions used in the application of Bayes theorem of probability, examines the leading critics of this approach, and then explains his refinements to the methodology to make a better fit to the critical task he is attempting. All assumptions based upon historical writings, philosophic examination, and scientific evidence start with a given probability at the 100% level. He then adjusts this probability downward based upon the strength of evidence: physical - historical necessity, direct physical evidence, unbiased or counter-biased corroboration, the credibility of critical accounts, and the care with which eyewitness accounts were prepared. His methodology flows from these premises.An important point emerges early. Any view of Joseph Smith's personality characteristics must rest upon an understanding of the cultural climate from which he emerged. The historical record suggests that Joseph's gifts for creative imagination were both fostered by and creatively reinforce within the culture in which he and his early confederates were immersed.Widdowson does a good job of helping the reader to understand what is meant by the concept of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) and how Joseph Smith's personality expressed many of the features of that concept. Carefully examining the historical record, he shows us that Joseph Smith's described behavior is consistent with a diagnosis of Narcissistic Personality Disorder.He also introduces us to the concept of the Fantasy Prone Personality. This is a psychological concept with which I was not previously familiar. Wilson and Barber's development of this concept seems observationally sound and valid on its face. Moreover, it would certainly seem to apply to what we know of Joseph's historical development.Widdowson's treatment of the role that polygamy played in the early development of the Mormon Church, perhaps the church's most controversial chapter, is fascinating. He lays out how self-interest, or to use a word from science, bias, can creep into an otherwise righteous enterprise - the foundation of a new religion. Joseph appears to be both deceptive and inter-personally exploitative in the way he introduced polygamy. First it was hidden. Then the rationalizations were emboldened. Finally, intimidation and punishment were deployed. Yet he continued to direct the process through the subtleties of mandating prayer with the assumption of negative meanings given to non-compliance. It is interesting to consider how long it took before the convenience of these spiritual rationalizations were finally abandoned.Widdowson brings this book to a strong close. He reviews the ways in which researcher bias can creep into results. In presenting his conclusions, he demonstrates how Bayes probability theory produces the likelihood of result from uncertain information. Finally, after summarizing his conclusions, he characterizes the significance of the 10 most important findings. --L.J. Schmidt, MD. Associate Professor of Psychiatry, University of Utah School of Medicine, Neuropsychiatric Institute, Salt Lake City, Utah
From the Back Cover
"I enthusiastically endorse this book." --L.J. Schmidt, MD, Associate Professor of Psychiatry, University of Utah School of Medicine, Neuropsychiatric Institute, Salt Lake City, Utah."A clear, concise and objective study using probability theory to answer the question: What level of probability is Mormonism as divine? After careful review of the evidence, Dr. Widdowson answers this question. This is a good book for those considering the validity of Mormonism, and for those looking for a scientific approach to the study of religion." --David Disorbio, MS, CSCS Dr. Widdowson has written a timely and relevant work on the probability of Mormonism as divine. Over the past several years, many members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have learned about issues concerning it's history and theology that were not ordinarily taught in mainstream Mormon classes. Now, Dr. Widdowson analyzes under an established statistical theory, whether Mormonism could in fact be divine. This book will be enjoyed by students of the sciences, in particular those with a penchant for statistical analysis of evidentiary area issues concerning Mormonism and all religions.
About the Author
R. Keith Widdowson has a PhD in psychology from the University of Utah. He has written about the ecology of mental illness. He has dedicated a large portion of his professional career to helping veterans, including establishing a nonprofit corporation to provide rehabilitation services to veterans.
In addition, to his clinical and management responsibilities, he was an EEO investigator for the Veterans Administration. In this role, he took complainant and management witness evidence under oath, evaluated the culture of the institution, analyzed the evidence and reported to the Central Office.
Dr. Widdowson is currently retired from his position as chief of outpatient psychiatry services at the VA Medical Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. He is a former member of the LDS Church and has two sons who have also left the church. Keith spends his time managing his various real estate holdings in Utah and reading and writing about the sociology and psychology of religion.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Best Book Ever Written On The Subject Of Mormonism
By Rena B Beckstead
As an attorney I am accustomed to critical reading and always consider an opinion just that, an opinion. This book was written as a neutral presentation as to facts and probabilities, not opinion. Dr. Widdowson does a comprehensive analysis of timelines, Mormon doctrine writings and witness statements.
His analysis is presented as it would be presented in a courtroom. An incredible chronological presentation not of negative or positive, just facts. I have read several papers and books on wheather Mormonism or any religious theme for that matter may be real or just someones incredible imagination. Most were bias either for or against the particular subject. Dr. Widdowson's book is by far the best analysis of the creation of Mormonism. The book has is simple thesis, what is the probability and accuracy of witness claims, and statements the credibility of each, and the probability of it's veracity.
Rena Beckstead, Attorney
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